Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno-Busta 9/4/22 US Open Tennis Picks, Predictions, Odds

Pablo Carreno-Busta and Karen Khachanov meet in the fourth of the 2022 tennis US Open.

Pablo Carreno-Busta is coming off a 4 sets win over Alex De Minaur that took 36 games to decide. In the victory, Carreno-Busta won 79 percent of his first serve points and 57 percent of his second serve points. Carreno-Busta won 72 percent of his total service points and converted on 5 of his 10 break points. Carreno-Busta got 67 percent of his first serves in play and hit 8 aces. Carreno-Busta has won each of his first three matches in four sets, and he’s won 10 of his last 12 matches overall. Carreno-Busta looks to make his fifth career grand slam quarterfinal and third at the US Open. Carreno-Busta is 4-4 in career grand slam fourth round matches. Carreno-Busta has won 9 of his last 10 matches on hard court.

Karen Khachanov is coming off a 3 sets win over Jack Draper that took 28 games to decide. In the victory, Khachanov won 84 percent of his first serve points and 34 percent of his second serve points. Khachanov won 66 percent of his total service points and converted on 5 of his 15 break points. Khachanov got 64 percent of his first serves in play and hit 14 aces. Khachanov was in a fight, but his opponent retired late in the third set, ending the match in pretty much two and a half hours. Khachanov looks to make his third career grand slam quarterfinal and first at the US Open. Khachanov is 2-5 in career grand slam fourth round matches. Khachanov has won 5 of his last 8 matches on hard court.

Khachanov has won 5 of the 9 meetings against Carreno-Busta, including the most recent match this year in Rome. Carreno-Busta’s most recent win against Khachanov came in 2021 Monte Carlo. Khachanov is 4-1 against Carreno-Busta on hard court. 

Khachanov has had great success against Carreno-Busta on hard court, but he’s not playing his best at the moment, and he has little to no success once getting this deep in grand slam play. Carreno-Busta has been on a tear over these last couple of months, and he’s played terrific at the US Open these last few years. This feels like a spot where Carreno-Busta gets a rare win over the Russian on this surface.

Give me Carreno-Busta and the reasonable price.