Elena Rybakina vs Garbine Muguruza
August 17, 2022 2:00 pm EDT
The Line: Garbine Muguruza / Elena Rybakina
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Elena Rybakina and Garbine Muguruza meet in the second round of the 2022 tennis Western & Southern Open.
Elena Rybakina is coming off a straight set win over Mayar Sherif that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Rybakina won 75 percent of her first serve points and 55 percent of her second serve points. Rybakina won 67 percent of her total service points and converted on 4 of her 8 break points. Rybakina got 59 percent of her first serves in play and saved 4 of her 5 break points. Eight of Rybakina’s last 10 victories have been decided in straight sets. Rybakina looks to win back-to-back matches for the first time since winning Wimbledon. Rybakina has 8 career wins over top-10 players, and one of those wins came this year. Rybakina has split her last 8 matches on hard court.
Garbine Muguruza is coming off a second match loss in Toronto to Belinda Bencic in straight sets. In the losing effort, Muguruza won 50 percent of her total service points and was broken 4 times. Muguruza is still struggling to find her footing as she’s had major issues as of late and has actually lost 6 of last 8 matches. While the return has left a lot to be desired, Muguruza isn’t going to really turn the corner until she holds serve more consistently. Muguruza has lost her opening match 4 times since Rome. Muguruza has split her last 10 matches on hard court.
These two have split the previous 2 meetings. Muguruza won 2021 Berlin and Rybakina won a 2021 Olympics meeting. Both matches were decided in straight sets.
Muguruza is capable of winning the title here when she’s fit, but she’s been on the struggle bus for a few months now, and it’s hard to back her with confidence. Rybakina looked sharp in her opening match, and she’s been one of the better players on tour since Wimbledon, obviously. I just need to see Muguruza break out of this funk before I can trust her again.
I have to lean toward Rybakina in this spot.