Week 1: Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts 9/11/22 NFL Picks, Predictions, Odds

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) vs. Houston Texans (0-0)
September 11, 2022 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Houston Texans +8.5 / Indianapolis Colts -8.5; Over/Under: 44.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts do battle Sunday afternoon in a week 1 NFL contest at NRG Stadium. The Indianapolis Colts are coming off 9 wins and enter the fifth year under coach Frank Reich. The Houston Texans are coming off 4 wins and begin the Lovie Smith era.

The Indianapolis Colts are an intriguing team because the pieces are there on both sides of the ball, it’s just a mater of everything coming together. Jonathan Taylor is one of the top running backs in the league, Michael Pittman Jr. is a respectable No. 1 receiver and Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly are terrific offensive linemen. The Colts defense also gets a boost with the additions of Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore. The one question mark is the Colts rolling with a 37-year-old Matt Ryan at quarterback. Not only has Ryan been up and down these last few years, but he’ll be the Colt’s fifth straight different quarterback in the last five years. Again, the pieces are there, but the Colt’s quarterback will make or break things.

The Houston Texans are in a complete rebuild as they move on from Deshaun Watson for good and have a new coaching staff. The one thing to like with the Texans this season is their offensive line, as Kenyon Green, Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard and Justin Britt provide a lot of optimism and building blocks for what’s to come. However, a quarterback room of Davis Mills and Kyle Allen leaves a lot to be desired. Defensively, rookie defensive backs Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr. will be the players to watch this season in terms of the growth of this roster. There’s not a lot to like with the Texans currently, as this is a rebuilding project that may take another 2 or 3 years.

The Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September. The under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games overall. The over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games overall. The Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Houston and 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 meetings.

The Indianapolis Colts have the ability to blow the doors off here, but they’re also new in a lot of areas, have a new starting quarterback for a fifth straight season, and it’s the first game of the year. Sometimes it takes a week or two for teams to really get going, and it makes laying these sorts of numbers tricky. I’m not excited to lay more than a full touchdown in the first week when we’re still learning each team. Yes, the Houston Texans aren’t good on paper and the Colts have dark horse title potential. The line makes sense. I’m still grabbing the points here if forced to pick.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Houston Texans +8.5
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